Signal

The FT’s “The AI Shift” reports the long-predicted decline is now in the data: the Philippines has 10% fewer people employed in call centres, and Kenya has seen a 6% drop over the past 18 months. Crucially, both are shrinking through attrition — seats emptied and not refilled — rather than layoffs.

Data

  • Philippines: -10% call-centre employment; BPO is a national pillar employing on the order of two million people
  • Kenya: -6% over 18 months
  • Global: call-centre headcount is 5.3% below its December 2023 peak, per Revelio Labs, ending a decade of growth
  • The Philippine outsourcing industry group has already cut its 2028 jobs forecast to as low as 1.85M

Counter

BPO boomed through the pandemic and part of this is mean reversion; the industry association insists voice work is converting to non-voice work rather than disappearing; and attrition-based shrinkage is slower and less visible than the “AI wipes out call centres” headline implies. Some of the decline may reflect client cost pressure unrelated to AI.

Verdict

Crossed from intention to national employment data. The mechanism matters as much as the number: no mass layoffs, no dramatic announcements — just seats that empty and stay empty. That is what AI displacement looks like in aggregate statistics, and it aligns with AI voice agents reaching production quality in exactly this window.